000
WTPZ45 KNHC 101439
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTRAL FEATURES BECAME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS DERIVED
FROM SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS BY TAFB AND SAB HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY
TO 115 KT.  EMILIA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING
IMPEDED SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS REGIME WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RELAXING
SOMEWHAT IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
WEAKENING...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS/LGEM AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 285/9.
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THAT A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TURN...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TYPICALLY TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 14.1N 115.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 15.1N 118.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 15.6N 120.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 16.5N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH