000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100848
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
 
EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR MASS
OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.2/120 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY SINCE 0500 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 290/10 KT. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EMILIA CONTINUING TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAY 4...HOWEVER...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.

NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS. COLD UPWELLING...WHICH IS A
VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 UNITS OR LESS...COULD INDUCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED AFTER 36 HOURS HOURS WHEN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ZERO. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 13.5N 113.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 14.0N 114.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 14.6N 116.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 15.1N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 15.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 16.3N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 17.1N 128.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 17.7N 134.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART