000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091453 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY FROM A CATEGORY ONE TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED...SPECIFYING THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MIGHT BE STRONGER. HOWEVER THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED ON RECENT IR IMAGES...SO IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME. EMILIA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS ABOVE ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ASSUMING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF AND SLOWLY DECREASE IN 24-36 HOURS. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE LIMITED. EMILIA CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 290/10. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK PREDICTION. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 12.6N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 13.0N 111.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 13.6N 113.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 15.4N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 17.0N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH