000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090857 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012 THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. A 09/0330 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...EMILIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY. TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/10 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST AND THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKING THE HURRICANE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED FROM SOUTH OF TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE DISTINCT NORTHWARD-BIAS OF THE GFS MODEL WITH HURRICANE DANIEL... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TV15. BASED ON THE TIGHT INNER CORE NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY... LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS AND FSSE/FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE OF 32 KT AND 33 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 KT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LEVEL OFF THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS UNTIL EMILIA REACHES COOLER WATERS BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSE FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 11.9N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 12.4N 110.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 13.0N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 13.5N 114.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 13.9N 116.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 14.6N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 15.4N 124.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 16.4N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART