000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090241
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
 
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING AN EYE...AND A TIMELY 0105 UTC SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS THAT AT
LEAST HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED NEAR VERY DEEP CONVECTION EAST
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE IMPROVEMENTS IN CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILIA TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...IF NOT
RAPIDLY...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 28C FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ENHANCED OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DOWNSTREAM OF THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE
DANIEL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS EMILIA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 12
HOURS AND REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL
BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS SHOWN BY THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT EMILIA SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EMILIA MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW MUCH EMILIA WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING WESTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS
SHOWS THE MOST INTERACTION AND MORE OF A WEST-NORTHEST MOTION AT
DAY 2 AND BEYOND...AS IT HAS THE DEEPEST REPRESENTATION OF THE
EMILIA VORTEX. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE UKMET SHOWS A MUCH
SHALLOWER REPRESENTATION OF EMILIA THAT DOES NOT FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND THEREFORE MOVES SOUTH OF DUE WEST AFTER
48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS...SOME INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST REFLECTS THAT SCENARIO AND LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
TVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 11.6N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 12.1N 110.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 12.7N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 13.3N 114.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 13.6N 115.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 14.2N 119.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN