000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081437
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
 
THE INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA REMAINS ELONGATED DUE TO
A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW SINK FROM
HURRICANE DANIEL.  HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT CURVED BANDING FEATURES BENEATH THE CLOUD CANOPY WITH
SOME EVIDENCE OF A PRIMITIVE INNER CORE.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT...WITH AMSU AND ADT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT CONSIDERING THE ORGANIZATION SEEN
ON MICROWAVE DATA.  

ASSUMING THAT EMILIA DOES NOT GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW
FROM DANIEL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW
THIS DUE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE MICROWAVE RING FEATURE SEEN
OVERNIGHT AND THE LURKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  HOWEVER THE NEW
FORECAST IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  WEAKENING SHOULD START IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN SSTS BEGIN TO FALL ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR AROUND THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA.  THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS TROUGH IS THE
BIGGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL CAUSE A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION OF EMILIA BEYOND THREE DAYS.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC IN NATURE...WITH THE FINAL
TRACK GENERALLY LYING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND TVCN. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 11.2N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 11.7N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 12.5N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 13.2N 112.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 13.9N 114.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 15.0N 117.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 15.8N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE