000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080851 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012 THE INNER CORE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW PATTERNS HAVE BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE CYCLONE GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN MODEST EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO ITS EAST AND THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW FROM MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL LOCATED TO ITS WEST. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW AT T3.0/45 KT. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE EMILIA HAS BEEN WOBBLING ALMOST DUE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. TRENDING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 285/12 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS STILL PLACES THE INITIAL POSITION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ONLY GRADUALLY TURN EMILIA WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE MORE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LOW...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING A 66 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 30-KT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL PINCHING EFFECT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AFTER 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS DANIEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WEAKEN AND NO LONGER IMPINGES ON EMILIA. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR EMILIA TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF EMILIA BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 10.7N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 11.4N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 12.1N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 12.8N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 113.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 15.7N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 16.5N 124.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART