000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080231 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME...THE BANDING STRUCTURE ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES WAS IMPRESSIVE. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IN THIS ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING APPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL KEEP EMILIA FROM INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR PERHAPS EARLIER...AND SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INCREASED FROM A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY TO A 73 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH IS COMMONLY AN INDICATION OF INTENSIFICATION AT A FASTER PACE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE GOOD NEWS FOR MEXICO IS THAT THERE IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A GOOD CLIP WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...EMILIA WILL PROBABLY DECREASE SOME IN FORWARD SPEED. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT VERY TIGHT...BUT STILL ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE EMILIA WESTWARD OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 10.7N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 11.3N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 12.0N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 12.8N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 13.5N 112.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 16.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA