000
WTPZ45 KNHC 072031
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012
 
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MEXICO.  VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THUS...THE LOW IS NOW BEING
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND GIVEN AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT BASED ON A T2.0 FROM TAFB. 

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING WITH VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS
INDEX INDICATING A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING.  IT IS
PUZZLING WHY THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS
CYCLONE GIVEN SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AND THE
SHIPS MODEL.  COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND IN ABOUT
FIVE DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.  A LARGE RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IN A FEW
DAYS TIME...SOME OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AROUND 115W...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE AT LONG RANGE...AND THUS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.  

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z  9.9N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 10.4N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 11.1N 106.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 11.8N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 12.5N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 13.7N 114.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE