000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111444 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JOVA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE EYEWALL...AND THE EYE IS OCCASIONALLY VISIBLE IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS AS THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/4. JOVA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THAT TIME. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER LANDFALL...POSSIBLY DUE TO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER LANDFALL. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER... JOVA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HEAVY RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 17.8N 105.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 19.0N 105.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 20.3N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0000Z 21.4N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/1200Z 22.1N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/1200Z 23.5N 105.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN