000
WTPZ45 KNHC 111444
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JOVA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE EYEWALL...AND THE EYE IS OCCASIONALLY
VISIBLE IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE
A BIT GENEROUS AS THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOWER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/4.  JOVA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING
THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THAT TIME.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER LANDFALL...POSSIBLY DUE TO HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER LANDFALL.

FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...
JOVA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.  AFTER THAT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
JOVA CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HEAVY RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 17.8N 105.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 19.0N 105.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 20.3N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/0000Z 21.4N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/1200Z 22.1N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  14/1200Z 23.5N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN