000
WTPZ45 KNHC 211449
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009
 
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO AND SATELLITE
IMAGES...THE CENTER OF RICK HAS CROSSED THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THE STATION REPORTED WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 1200 UTC TO THE SOUTHWEST MORE RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...THIS SITE
MEASURED A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 KT WITH GUSTS TO 53 KT AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB NEAR 1200 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA AND
A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 45 KT. ONCE THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY INLAND...RICK IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KT.
 
A 0900 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE HELPED TO
SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS
INCREASED AND RICK IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT
15 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 23.4N 106.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 24.8N 104.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA