000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180236 TCDEP5 HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER LINDA IN 1997. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY. RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM MEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA