000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172035 TCDEP5 HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009 RICK IS STILL INTENSIFYING...WITH THE 10 NM WIDE EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT AT 18Z...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON THIS AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. QUIKSCAT DATA NEAR 14Z INDICATED THAT RICK IS GROWING LARGER IN SIZE...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY. RICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 18 HRS OR SO. THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN ABOUT 12 HRS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LAND INTERACTION ALSO BECOMING A FACTOR DURING THE 96-120 HR PERIOD. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. RICK REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE FROM 48-120 HRS. THE 12Z DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST RICK TO MOVE FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER RECURVATURE THAN THEIR EARLIER RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF...GDFL...AND HWRF MODELS NOW FORECASTING RICK TO PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 96 HRS. THE GFS... NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TRACK BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR RICK TO BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 96 HR AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 120 HR. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.8N 104.5W 130 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 106.5W 140 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W 140 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W 130 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 111.7W 120 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 111.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 108.5W 65 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BEVEN