000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171500 TCDEP5 HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009 RICK HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASING TO 127 AND 115 KT RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE 127 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE WARMING OF THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST FEW HRS...AND RECENT SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE ARE SIGNS THAT RICK IS PEAKING IN INTENSITY. RICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HRS. THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN 12-24 HRS. AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FOR REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. RICK REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE FROM 48-120 HRS. AFTER 48 HRS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND. THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HRS...AND THEN IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.2N 103.0W 125 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.7N 104.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 107.4W 140 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.2N 109.5W 135 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W 125 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN