000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171011
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
315 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF RICK...WHICH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A
REMARKABLE PACE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY ARE AT LEAST 6.0...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 115 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.  FURTHER
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SHARPLY UPWARD. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK NEAR CATEGORY 5 STATUS IN 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  INNER CORE DYNAMICS MAY ALSO
CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. AT
48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE ALSO
BEEN ADJUSTED THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODIFICATIONS TO
THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1015Z 14.0N 102.3W   115 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.3N 103.7W   130 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.9N 106.1W   135 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 15.7N 108.5W   130 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 110.4W   120 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 112.7W   110 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N 112.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI