000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170229
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009
 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO APPARENT EYE ON IR IMAGES YET...RECENT SSMI AND
SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A QUITE DISTINCT EYE FEATURE. THIS
NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION THAT THE EYE WILL PROBABLY SHOW UP
CLEARLY ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE WITH A VERY STRONG AREA OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NUMEROUS RAINBANDS. THE
OUTFLOW IS OUTSTANDING IMPLYING THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON 5.0 AND 4.5
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. MY PREDECESSORS HAVE
DESCRIBED AT LENGTH THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF RICK...AND THAT
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE MORE FAVORABLE THAN AVERAGE FOR A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...
AND RICK IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 125 KNOTS. A SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS INDICATED ONCE THE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH
OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY
OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY ERODED BY
THE EXPANSION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES.
THE RESULTING STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO A RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK ON
A WESTWARD TRACK...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE HURRICANE
EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AND BRINGS RICK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO OR OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.      
 
INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STRENGTHENING HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 13.3N 101.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 13.7N 102.4W   100 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W   110 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 107.2W   115 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N 109.5W   125 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA