000
WTPZ45 KNHC 111434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009
 
THE LAST ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LINDA FADED
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z.  SSTS OF 25C...SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRY
ENVIRONMENT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT RESURGANCE UNLIKELY...AND UNLESS
THIS OCCURS LINDA WILL BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING HAS
OCCURRED SINCE THE 06Z ASCAT PASS...AND A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY
IS EXPECTED.

THE CENTER IS NOW APPARENT ON MULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGERY AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5.  A TURN TO THE LEFT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF LINDA IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT
TERM...BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS DOWN THIS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS CAUSES SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE TO TURN THE REMNANTS OF LINDA NORTHWARD AGAIN.  THE UKMET
AND ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...TURN LINDA IMMEDIATELY AND SHARPLY
WESTWARD AND KEEP IT ON THIS HEADING.  THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...BUT AT THE MOMENT I PREFER A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE CURRENT
MOTION AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 20.6N 130.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 21.2N 131.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 21.7N 132.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 22.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 23.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN