000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110839
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009

SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0421 UTC
INDICATE THAT LINDA HAS SHEARED APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
NOW PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. 
QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0228 UTC AND ASCAT DATA AT 0628 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL
40-45 KT WIND VECTORS...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 45 KT.  A COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING...WITH LINDA EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HR.  IF THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT MAKE A COMEBACK...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/5.  THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS LINDA TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
48 HR OR SO ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N141W AND
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS
LINDA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...WITH THE GFS-BASED MODELS CALLING
FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CALLING
FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT AFTER
72 HR.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 20.0N 130.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 20.6N 131.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 21.3N 132.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 21.7N 132.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 22.0N 132.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 22.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 22.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN