000
WTPZ45 KNHC 102038
TCDEP5
HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2009

A 1623 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS RETRIEVED FROM THE NRL MONTEREY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WEBSITE INDICATES A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY ENCLOSED
SURFACE EYEWALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE EYEWALL AT THE SURFACE
HAS ERODED...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE DECREASED TO 65 KT...AND AN EARLIER SATCON ANALYSIS FROM
UW-CIMSS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE HAD REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION TRENDS AND ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 65 KT. LINDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN WATERS. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND MID PERIOD...FURTHER ACCENTUATING THE WEAKENING TREND. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/08...WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF LINDA AND A
DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...LINDA SHOULD COMMENCE A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH
THE TVCN DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 19.4N 130.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 20.5N 130.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 21.6N 131.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 22.3N 132.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 22.6N 132.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 23.0N 133.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA