000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101438 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2009 ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AQUA-1 AMSR-E COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT LINDA HAS STRENGTHENED SOME THIS MORNING. DESPITE 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE IS COMPRISED OF IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A 90 PERCENT CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK AND AMSU TC INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE ICON MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/8 KT...WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF LINDA AND A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND DAY 3...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDN/GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TO THE NORTH OF LINDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. AS A RESULT...LINDA SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GENERAL NORTHWARD COMPONENT AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS SCENARIO AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL BLEND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 18.4N 130.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 19.4N 130.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 20.6N 131.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 21.3N 132.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 21.7N 132.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W 25 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1200Z 23.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA