000
WTPZ45 KNHC 092034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009
 
LINDA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE DATA. THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...WITH A
RING OF CONVECTION ON MICROWAVE DATA. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...AND BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
START AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
96 HOURS OR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT DISSIPATES LINDA BEYOND
72 HOURS.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF LINDA AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE.
THE SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN LARGER THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY BEYOND
48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 16.7N 129.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 131.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     14/1800Z 24.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA