000
WTPZ45 KNHC 091432
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE
CONVECTION IS NOT SYMMETRIC AND IS LOCATED PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS
REMAIN 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES
AT 55 KNOTS. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
CIRCULATION BEGINS TO REACH COOLER WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD START THEREAFTER AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
LINDA BEGAN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
325 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THERE IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
EAST OF LINDA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED.   MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE WITH ONE GROUP
TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THE OTHER SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE FIRST GROUP WHICH
CONSISTS OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND
THE CONSENSUS.  
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 16.5N 128.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.3N 129.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 130.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 20.7N 131.4W    40 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 22.5N 132.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 23.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     14/1200Z 25.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA