000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081432
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH DUE SHEAR. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS...AND THIS ESTIMATE
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND STAYS AWAY FROM THE GFDL/HWRF
MODEL PAIR THAT FORECAST LINDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
 
LINDA HAS BEEN MEANDERING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT
STEERING CURRENTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO
BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SOON AND THEN NORTHWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS LINDA OR ITS
REMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
BEGIN TO RECURVE.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS.
   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 15.2N 128.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.4N 128.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA