000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072034 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 200 PM PDT MON SEP 07 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...WITH ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAVING IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED BAND HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...RECENTLY WRAPPING AROUND WHAT COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARM SPOT COINCIDENT WITH THE CENTER. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LINDA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 50 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER SLOW 280/07. LINDA IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N112W. THE CYCLONE COULD SLOW EVEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF A TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THEREAFTER...AS THE WEAKNESS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED...LINDA SHOULD BE STEERED MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND RELIES MORE HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM...DISCOUNTING THE UKMET AND GFDL...WHICH ALMOST IMMEDIATELY FORECAST A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE AROUND 10 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS LINDA MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME INTENSIFICATION THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE LINDA TO BEGIN WEAKENING...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 15.5N 127.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 15.6N 127.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 17.2N 130.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN