000
WTPZ45 KNHC 071439
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
800 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
DURING THE MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEVELOPED
BAND...WITH MODERATELY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 1016 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE
CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...IN SPITE OF THE GENERAL
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. GIVEN THE UNCHANGED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT.
 
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A RATHER SLOW INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 280/07. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR 135W.  WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE IN THE SHORT-TERM...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AN EVEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ONCE THE
DEPRESSION RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS AHEAD OF IT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERS WEAK TO
MODERATE SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...INDICATING A
PERIOD OF MODEST STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 15.4N 126.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 15.6N 127.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 16.0N 128.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.3N 129.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 16.8N 130.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 18.8N 131.8W    45 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N 133.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN