000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162040
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2009
 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FINALLY TAKING A TOLL ON GUILLERMO...AS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING ONLY A FAINT EYE AND AN ASYMMETRIC
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT. 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSING 30 KT
OF SHEAR BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
HWRF/SHIPS/LGEM.  THE GFDL UNREALISTICALLY RE-INTENSIFIES THE
VORTEX AT THE END OF PERIOD AND IS DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME.  

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS NOW 285/12. GUILLERMO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL BEND FROM A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO A NORTHWEST TRACK AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY SOME MODELS THAT WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF GUILLERMO MIGHT MOVE MORE A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AT 96 HOURS. 
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA44 PHFO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 20.4N 139.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 141.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 144.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 23.3N 147.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 24.8N 150.8W    35 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 28.5N 157.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 31.5N 164.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE