000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152056
TCDEP5

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009
 
GUILLERMO REMAINS A WELL FORMED HURRICANE WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
THROUGHOUT THE EYEWALL. THE EYE ITSELF IS PARTIALLY CLOUD-FILLED. 
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 95 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH 
GRADUAL WEAKENING STARTING WITH THIS CYCLE RATHER THAN AFTER 12 
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE ICON BLEND...GFDL...LGEM... 
SHIPS...AND HWRF...FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE FORECAST 
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEG AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 12 KT. THE 
CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER 
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 
HURRICANE GUILLERMO SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
DIRECTION INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE ADVISORY IS AN EXTENSION OF THE 
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 19.2N 134.5W    95 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 136.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 139.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.4N 141.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 22.3N 144.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 24.3N 149.2W    35 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 26.5N 154.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 29.1N 160.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG