000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151439
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009
 
THE INNER CORE OF GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. 
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS ALSO SUGGEST
THE EYE NO LONGER CLOUD-FILLED.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN FROM 6 HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 110 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE CYCLONE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
FOR A BIT LONGER.  BEYOND THE 12 HOUR PERIOD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN...WITH A FASTER SPIN DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE ICON
BLEND...GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND HWRF...FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD...TO SHOW A MORE REALISTIC WEAKENING...A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM IS RELIED ON.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  HURRICANE GUILLERMO
SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION INTO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 4 AND
5.  THE ADVISORY IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 18.9N 133.2W   110 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 135.2W    90 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.2N 137.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 140.3W    70 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.9N 142.8W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 24.0N 148.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 26.0N 153.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 28.5N 159.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN