000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150520
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
1030 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE NOW COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED BY A THICK RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. A SPECIAL
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AT 0430 UTC GAVE A T-NUMBER OF
5.5...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...AND
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AS IS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.
 
THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0530Z 18.4N 130.8W   100 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W   100 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN