000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142034
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT GUILLERMO HAS
DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE.  THE UPPER
OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.  A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 85 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOLLOWS SUIT.  SLIGHT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE COOLER WATER BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM.  AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO SPIN DOWN
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BEYOND THE 24 HOUR...WHICH IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
LGEM DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD.  THE LARGE-SCALE AND
HURRICANE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 17.9N 128.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.3N 130.9W    80 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.8N 133.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.4N 136.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 138.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 144.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N 149.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 24.5N 154.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN