000
WTPZ45 KNHC 141434
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009
 
ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT GUILLERMO IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING.  BANDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...INDICATIVE OF AN
EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTING A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITIES AND 70 KT ESTIMATES FROM A RECENT AMSU
OVERPASS AND AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS.
 
SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
OVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...LGEM...AND SHIPS
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE FORECAST IS HEDGED
CLOSER TO THE SHIPS WHICH REFLECTS A MORE REASONABLE WEAKENING
TREND.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 280/14...WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE 5 DAY FORECAST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED TOGETHER...BUT DO INDICATE SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN FOREWORD
SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE TVCN MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
ON DAY 5.
 
THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM AN
ASCAT PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 17.8N 127.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.2N 129.3W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 132.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N 134.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N 137.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.4N 142.7W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 22.6N 147.7W    35 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN