000
WTPZ45 KNHC 132038
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
200 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2009
 
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  IN FACT...THE EARLIER
SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A BANDING EYE FEATURE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH ALSO IS SUPPORTED
BY A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...ALL INDICATING STRENGTHENING TO A LOW END
HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 36
HOUR PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.  THE
LARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND A GENERAL EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS
INDICATED AS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
MODEL AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 17.2N 123.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 17.6N 125.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.2N 127.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.8N 130.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.4N 133.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 139.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 144.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 21.0N 149.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN