000
WTPZ45 KNHC 130242
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
CONSISTS OF WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED
PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES
OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE DEPRESSION
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT.   GUILLERMO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN SOME
STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR IN ABOUT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

GUILLERMO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP 
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
PERHAPS BECOME EVEN MORE EASTERLY BEYOND THREE DAYS. GUILLERMO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A SMALL BEND TO THE
WEST DURING THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST
LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 16.2N 119.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.1N 123.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 134.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 140.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 18.5N 147.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA