000
WTPZ45 KNHC 121610
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
900 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED.  THE QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/14...BUT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
A LACK OF GOOD HISTORY ON THE CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT EASTERLY. 
THIS WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALONG THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND HWRF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW
AS MUCH DECAY AS SHIPS LATE IN THE PERIOD BECAUSE THAT MODEL WAS
BASED ON THE BAMM TRACK...WHICH LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1600Z 15.3N 116.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 118.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.6N 120.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 17.4N 126.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN