000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
 
DOLORES HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1330 UTC...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT IF SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-FIRE...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY NOW THAT
THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATERS OF AROUND 24C.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16...AND THE TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION.
 
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...
THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.3N 122.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N 130.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.9N 133.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN