000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE CENTER OF DOLORES AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS ASSUMED
TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH STILL APPEARED TO BE 
WELL-DEFINED IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 0800 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/16. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK 
TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE
HWRF AND GFDL AND SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...
WHICH TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 140W.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
REFORM NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 18.9N 120.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.1N 122.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.4N 125.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 22.3N 128.3W    25 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 23.2N 130.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN