000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160835
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
 
THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AND IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A DISORGANIZED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EVEN USING THE
AMBIGUITIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
BUT THE CONVECTION IS VANISHING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE ESTIMATES
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL AND THE T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SAME AS
00 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BUT THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. BECAUSE A PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THEREAFTER...DOLORES IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. DOLORES APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS DOLORES WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
LOW.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS KEEPING THE
CYCLONE OR THE LOW ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BUT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGER THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOLLOWING THE
GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 18.2N 119.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 121.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 124.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 127.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA