000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150833
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS EAST. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE ON IR IMAGES...BUT WE KNOW IT IS NOT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE
DATA. IN FACT....A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD
BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED AND EVEN MORE REMOVED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.  THE
DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR IN TWO DAYS OR SO.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.

BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09.  THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND HEAVILY BIAS ON THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 14.2N 114.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N 118.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 120.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 123.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     20/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA