000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150244
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
 
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT
PASS.  WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS ORGANIZED INTO BANDS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ASCAT
DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS SO LITTLE HISTORY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT MID
LEVELS...AND A LOW AT UPPER LEVELS...LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION.  THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION
IS ASYMMETRIC ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE THE CENTER TO JUMP OR REFORM
TO THE NORTH OR EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  APART FROM THIS...A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD WITH THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE RIGHT
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...EARLY BUT THEN
FAVORS THE LEFT-LEANING GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER...AND THE CURRENT LIMITED CENTRAL ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS IN 36-48 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 13.8N 113.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N 117.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 119.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     20/0000Z 21.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN