000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230235
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2007
 
IT HAD BEEN NEARLY 10 HOURS SINCE KIKO PRODUCED ANY DEEP CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...JUST AS THE CLOCK WAS ABOUT TO HIT DOUBLE ZERO...UTC...A
NEW BURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED...AND KIKO'S TIME AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
KIKO APPEARS QUITE HOSTILE...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND A
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS.  THE FORECAST INDICATES NO WEAKENING
DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DURING THE NEXT DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN STEADILY AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW IN 24 HOURS.  KIKO COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOONER...IF IT FAILS TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION EARLY
ON TUESDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/9.  THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.
THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE
AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS IN A FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 19.4N 110.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 19.2N 112.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.1N 114.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN