000
WTPZ45 KNHC 020304
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

CONVECTION FLARED UP NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER OF GIL THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING COVERED BY THE OVERCAST
FOR A WHILE.  THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
STARTING TO WARM...SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURST MAY BE
ENDING.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT PENDING EITHER
PERSISTENT OF THE CONVECTION OR OTHER DATA SHOWING ACTUAL
INTENSIFICATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  GIL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITH TIME.  THIS WILL
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.  GIL IS MOVING OVER
COLDER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN 12-24 HR...WITH FINAL DISSIPATION IN 72 HR OR SO. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 19.3N 122.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.6N 123.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.2N 126.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.4N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN