000
WTPZ44 KNHC 231453
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
 
Satellite imagery indicated that Roslyn made landfall earlier this
morning around 1120 UTC near Santa Cruz in the Mexican state of
Nayarit.  The maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure
were estimated to be 105 kt and 958 mb, respectively.  An observing
site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of
Nayarit reported sustained winds of 71 kt and a gust of 108 kt
within the past hour or so.  The hurricane has moved farther inland
and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt based on a
standard inland decay rate.  Rapid weakening is expected to continue
to occur today as Roslyn interacts with the mountainous terrain of
west-central Mexico and encounters strengthening vertical wind
shear.  The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm this
afternoon and dissipate tonight or early Monday, if not sooner.
 
Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at 17 kt.  The track forecast
reasoning has not changed.  The hurricane should continue to
accelerate across west-central Mexico towards the north-northeast
for the next day or so along the northwest periphery of a mid-level
ridge until dissipation occurs.  A 24 hour position has been
forecast for the sake of continuity, though it is expected that
the low-level circulation will have dissipated by then.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging winds will spread inland along the track of Roslyn over
west-central mainland Mexico through late this afternoon.
 
2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central
Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 22.8N 105.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown