000
WTPZ44 KNHC 222053
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Roslyn
found 700-mb flight-level winds of 124 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and a central pressure of 954 mb. These data, combined with
multiple satellite intensity estimates near 115 kt, support keeping
the initial intensity at 115 kt.  That make Roslyn a Category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
 
The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt.  Roslyn
should turn northward during the next few hours, followed by a
north-northeastward motion as it moves around the western periphery
of a mid-level high centered over Mexico.  The track guidance
continues to indicate that the hurricane will pass just offshore of
Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, tonight, and then accelerate north-
northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall on the coast of the
Mexican state of Nayarit.  After landfall, Roslyn or its remnants
are expected to accelerate toward the northeast over northern
Mexico until the cyclone dissipates.  The new forecast track is a
little to the left of the previous track through 12 h based on a
more westward initial position.  However, after that time it is
similar to the previous forecast.
 
Roslyn is likely near peak intensity, as it is moving into an area
of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear.  Due to this and
the trend in the guidance, the new intensity forecast shows slight
weakening before landfall.  However, Roslyn is still expected to be
at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on
Sunday.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves
through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidental, and the new
intensity forecast now calls for the cyclone to dissipate between
36-48 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Roslyn is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico tonight and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a
dangerous storm surge.  Preparations within the Hurricane Warning
area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to
completion.
 
2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 19.0N 106.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 20.4N 106.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 23.2N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0600Z 26.0N 102.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven