000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221440 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of a cold central dense overcast. Given the rate of intensification, the actual intensity is a bit of a moving target. However, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are currently in the 105-115 kt range, and based on the latest CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Roslyn. The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 330/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous advisory. Roslyn is expected to continue recurving around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The track guidance continues to indicate that the hurricane will pass just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, tonight, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall, Roslyn or its remnants are expected to accelerate toward the northeast over northern Mexico. The new forecast track has mainly noise-level adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening during the next 6-12 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Roslyn to strengthen some more during that time. After that, increasing southwesterly vertical shear and land interaction should cause some weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidentals. The intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate soon thereafter. However, both of these could occur earlier than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 18.0N 106.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven