000
WTPZ44 KNHC 091436
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
 
Howard has been maintaining a ragged-looking eye on geostationary
imagery, but an AMSR-2 microwave overpass showed a well-defined
ring of convection in the core.  The current intensity is set at 75
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB. The hurricane continues to exhibit a fairly well-defined
upper-level outflow pattern, indicative of low vertical wind shear.
 
The system is currently over marginally warm sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear is not predicted to
increase much over the next couple of days.  However Howard will be
passing over increasingly cooler ocean waters and into a drier, more
stable air mass.  These conditions should lead to steady weakening,
with the cyclone becoming post-tropical over 22 deg C SSTs in about
48 hours.  The official intensity forecast is very close to the
latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.
 
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or at about 300/9 kt.
A generally west-northwestward track is likely over the next few
days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a
mid-level ridge.  A westward turn is expected late in the forecast
period when the the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by
the lower-tropospheric flow.  The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous NHC prediction, and remains close to the
simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 22.0N 116.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch