000
WTPZ44 KNHC 081438
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022
 
Compared to yesterday at this time, Howard has become a much better
organized tropical cyclone. After the previous advisory, we received
an AMSR-2 microwave pass valid at 0844 UTC, which showed a nearly
closed cyan ring at 36 GHz, suggesting a low-level eye feature had
developed. More recently, 1-minute GOES-18 interleave satellite
imagery is occasionally depicting a banding-type eye signature with
colder cloud tops beginning to wrap around this feature. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T3.5/55 kt at
1200 UTC, which supports raising the intensity to 55 kt this
advisory.
 
Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track
guidance remains is good agreement that this northwestward motion
will continue for the next 24 hours as Howard remains steered by a
mid-level ridge to its northeast. Starting tomorrow, the storm
should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more
vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level
trade wind flow. The guidance has shifted ever so slightly north of
the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC track was nudged in
that direction, remaining close to the consensus aids TVCE
and HCCA.
 
Howard has another 12-18 hours over greater than 26 C sea surface 
temperatures (SSTs) in a low shear environment. Given the 
improvement in the inner core structure and higher initial 
intensity, the latest NHC forecast was raised quite a bit from the 
previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a hurricane later 
today. After 24 hours, the storm will be moving over rapidly cooling 
SSTs as the atmospheric environment becomes more stable with shear 
also increasing. Thus, steady weakening is expected and the latest 
intensity forecast still makes Howard post-tropical in 60 hours. 
This forecast is higher than the intensity guidance over the first 
day, but falls back in line with the consensus aids after that time 
period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 20.1N 113.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin