408 WTPZ44 KNHC 070851 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 The convection associated with Bonnie is gradually losing organization as the cyclone continues to feel the effects of shear and moves over cooler waters. However, while there has been no distinguishable eye feature for several hours in IR imagery, a just-received GMI 37 GHz microwave overpass shows a well-defined low-level eye under the convective overcast. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 60-90 kt, which is a greater than normal spread. However, the estimates are trending downward, and based on this the initial intensity is decreased to an uncertain 80 kt. The 34-kt wind radii have been reduced based on recent scatterometer data. Bonnie is moving over progressively cooler water and into a dry air mass. This combination should cause steady to rapid weakening. Current expectations are that Bonnie will stop producing convection between 48-60 h and become a post-tropical cyclone. The system is expected to decay to a remnant low by 72 h, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that it will weaken to a trough by 96 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The initial motion is 290/12 kt as Bonnie is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy and little change to the forecast from the previous advisory. The ridge is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the resulting shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind flow. The new track forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 17.1N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.7N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.4N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 19.0N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 19.6N 124.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 19.9N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 10/0600Z 20.1N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven