000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070237
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
Over the past several hours, Bonnie appears to have succumbed to 
the effects of northwesterly wind shear.  Satellite infrared 
imagery shows no distinguishable eye feature and cold cloud tops of 
-80C or less are only present in southeastern quadrant of the storm. 
The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt because of the 
recent reduction of inner core convective organization.  This is 
between the final T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air mass ahead of Bonnie. 
This atmospheric environment, and decreasing sea surface 
temperatures, are expected to continue weakening the storm 
gradually.  Within about a day, the tropical cyclone should cross 
into ocean temperatures of less than 26 C which will likely quicken 
the rate of weakening.  Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical 
by 60 hours, but simulated satellite infrared imagery from the GFS 
and ECMWF suggest this transition could occur even sooner.  The 
official intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and 
lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance.

The hurricane continues to move to the west-northwest at about 12 
kt on the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north.  This 
synoptic feature is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward 
for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the 
shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind flow.  The 
updated NHC track forecast is slightly north of the one from 
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model 
guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 16.9N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch