000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050842
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022
 
While Bonnie continues to generate well-organized central 
convection with cloud tops temperatures near -80C, the eye has 
become less distinct over the past several hours.  There has been 
little change in the various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 90 kt in best 
agreement with subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB.

The hurricane is starting to experience moderate northerly to 
northeasterly shear, and this will likely continue through the next 
24-36 h.  The shear is expected to limit additional strengthening, 
and the new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the 
guidance in calling for a 90-95 kt intensity during this time.  
After 36 h, the shear is forecast to diminish, but by that time 
Bonnie will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into 
a drier air mass.  This should lead to gradual weakening starting 
after 60 h and continuing for the remainder of the forecast period.

The initial motion is 290/15 kt.  A deep-layer ridge to the north 
of the hurricane should cause a general west-northwestward to 
westward motion through the forecast period, with a slowing of the 
forward speed during the first 48 h as the cyclone passes to the 
south of a weakness in the ridge.  The new forecast track is in the 
center of the tightly-clustered track guidance and lies close to 
the various consensus models.
 
Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 15.1N 103.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 15.5N 105.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 15.9N 107.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 16.2N 109.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 16.5N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 20.0N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven