983 WTPZ44 KNHC 040841 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 The satellite presentation of Bonnie is less organized than last night. The hurricane is still contending with some deep-layer northeasterly shear, as evidenced by the sharp cloud edge noted on the upshear side of its circulation. Additionally, the ragged eye previously seen in infrared imagery degraded overnight, and the inner core convection has been reduced to a curved convective band that wraps around the eastern and southern portions of the center. There are no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to better assess changes in Bonnie's structure this morning. The latest objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 53 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 70 kt. Despite the presence of 10-15 kt of deep-layer shear over Bonnie, the hurricane still has a window to strengthen during the next couple of days. Bonnie is expected to remain within a moist mid-level environment over very warm SSTs through Wednesday, and the majority of the intensity guidance still supports some strengthening within these favorable environmental conditions. However, rapid intensification appears somewhat less likely based on decreasing values in the latest SHIPS RI and DTOPS indices. The official NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high end of the guidance during the first 48 h, closest to the DSHP and LGEM aids. Thereafter, the intensity is forecast to level off and eventually weaken as the system moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs. The latter half of the NHC forecast trends closer to the multi-model consensus. The initial motion of Bonnie is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt. There are no changes to the track forecast reasoning. Bonnie is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, roughly parallel to but well offshore the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and it remains close to the TVCE consensus aid. This forecast track keeps tropical-storm-force winds associated with Bonnie offshore the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, but coastal locations can still expect rough surf and the potential for rip currents today and Tuesday as Bonnie passes offshore. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.6N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 99.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.8N 104.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 16.2N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 16.4N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 16.6N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart